Adobe ColdFusion 2020 Release Date Prediction (Analysis of 14 years of CF data)

Contents

When Can We Expect a Release Date of CF 2020 Public Beta?
Raw Data
ColdFusion for 2030

Adobe ColdFusion 2020 release date is close. It went into private beta on January 1st, 2020. There’s already plenty of info about what features will be in it. What many CFers are asking me is: When will the beta be publicly released? And when we will be able to get the official release?

TLDR;

I predict

CF 2020 Public beta release 9/5/20
CF 2020 Official release 12/15/20

In this article we will answer those questions by analyzing the release dates of six prior CF versions over the last 14 years since the release of CF8. Then we predict the dates for the public beta and official release of CF 2020. Let’s do it!

When Can We Expect a Release Date of CF 2020 Public Beta?

Why does this matter? Because CF 2020 looks like one of the coolest versions of CF for years! The Adobe ColdFusion team has already given us a sneak peek into what CF 2020 will bring and I have written about the new features extensively – see the related articles and podcasts at the end of this article.

First, let’s focus first on the expected beta release dates. We analyzed the last 14 years of private beta release dates, public beta release dates, and official release dates for every version of ColdFusion since CF8. From that we can predict when we can expect the public beta version and the official release CF 2020. Here’s a chart that I made from that data.

Note that the CF 2020 numbers are predications, while other CF versions are actual dates from the sources given at end of this article.

Conclusions

You can see that typically it is:

100 days from the private beta release to the public beta release and
about 90 days from the public beta to the final official release.
with a combined private and public beta time of 200 days.

But CF 2016 was a big exception to this rule, which makes the average days in those beta periods a bit higher.

And perhaps CF 2020 will be longer periods too – considering the big technical leap to multi-cloud features and container deployments. Let alone all the other CF language improvements coming in this release. And corona lockdown-induced delays to boot.

Raw Data

For those that are curious, here is the raw data the chart was made from. Sources are referenced at the end of this article.


Version	CF 8	CF 9	CF 10	CF 11	CF 2016	CF 2018	CF 2020	Average
Codename	Scorpio	Centaur	Zeus	Splendor	Raijin	Aether	Stratus
Private Beta Date	2/1/07	4/1/09	11/1/11	11/11/13	2/5/15	1/1/18	1/1/20
Days in Private Beta	89	103	108	100	135	101	248	106
Public Beta Date	5/1/07	7/13/09	2/17/12	2/19/14	6/20/15	4/12/18	9/5/20
Days in Publc Beta	90	84	88	69	241	91	101	111
Official Release Date	7/30/07	10/5/09	5/15/12	4/29/14	2/16/16	7/12/18	12/15/20
Total Days to Release	179	187	196	169	376	192	349	216.5
Version	CF 8	CF 9	CF 10	CF 11	CF 2016	CF 2018	CF 2020

CF 2020 Release Date Predictions

Looking at the graph, we can also see a pattern of the release dates. By counting the average days from the beginning of the private beta to the release of the public beta, which is 216 days, gives us a 8/4/20 release. Adding on a month to allow for corona-related delays and the added complexity of creating a cloud version of ColdFusion, gets us to 9/5/20.

Either way, I think the public beta will be released at least a month prior to the CF Summit West on November 17-19, 2020. That will build excitement about the new version at the event.

Starting from the CF 8 version, we see that the Adobe ColdFusion Official Release is usually, on average, 3 months after the public beta release. Allowing for the holidays in November/December, I predict a 12/15/20 official release for CF 2020. That would just get it released in the year of its name!

ColdFusion for 2030

Since coronavirus made all our lives quite different, it is expected that some things might change in all areas, and some dates might be changed too, but one thing is sure: Adobe ColdFusion is looking good for the next 10 years at least. And Adobe has committed to the CF platform for new versions and will provide support until at least 2030!

How you can help

Try out the Adobe ColdFusion 2020 Beta version, give them lots of feedback and help keep CF Alive!

Sources

Michaela Light is the host of the CF Alive Podcast and has interviewed more than 100 ColdFusion experts. In each interview, she asks "What Would It Take to make CF more alive this year?" The answers still inspire her to continue to write and interview new speakers. Michaela has been programming in ColdFusion for more than 20 years. She founded TeraTech in 1989. The company specializes in ColdFusion application development, security and optimization. She has also founded the CFUnited Conference and runs the annual State of the CF Union Survey.